Alfred Jenkins先后在林登约翰逊总统和尼克松总统手下担任负责处理美中关系的资深外交官，是1971年7月基辛格首次访华时的主要助手。1967年8月9日，时任国家安全事务委员会成员的Alfred Jenkins向美国总统国家安全事务助理Walt Whitman
Rostow送上一份备忘录，内容是瑞典外交官Jean-Christophe
Oberg评价文革时中共外交乱象。Jenkins说他认识并认为年轻的Oberg（33岁）是一位老练的亚洲事务观察家。
Oberg同意美方对中共外交部现状的看法，即一群激进的红卫兵已接管了外交部，这些人虽然对所谓毛泽东思想掌握的好，但对国际事务和外交几乎一窍不通。Oberg举例说在北京的驻华外交官到访外交部时看到悬挂的要求将陈毅砍头的大标语，这令人十分不安。红卫兵在陈毅接见某外国大使时也在场。当英国驻华代办到外交部递交关于香港据说的抗议信时，在场的红卫兵甚至骂他是法西斯。Oberg说包括瑞典在内的外国驻华外交官现在都尽量避免与外交部打交道，这也加剧了他们同中国社会的隔绝，以至于他们发回的局势报告准确性降低。
谈到中国的权力斗争问题，Oberg说回瑞典度假的瑞典驻华大使Petri拒绝提供任何长时段的预测，因为局势太不稳定。Petri说北京的氛围如此压抑以至于前往河内出差都像是在度假。林彪的权威空前高涨，但林那么糟糕的身体状况显然不足以在毛泽东逝世后管理国家。周恩来对东欧的来宾承认他个人反感文化大革命，但为了保留在权力核心圈以影响局势，他对公开批评文革会非常小心。Oberg说他们认为现在中方不可能派军队到国外作战，但仍然可以资助缅甸或泰国的武装反对派。
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MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
CONFIDENTIAL August 9 1967
MEMORANDUM FOR MR. ROSTOW
SUBJECT: Swedish Foreign
Ministry Official's Comments re Mainland China
The following
excerpts from a conversation which a member of our Embassy in Stockholm had
with Jean-Christophe Oberg are of interest. I know Oberg and consider him to be
a competent, young (33 years old) observer of the Asian scene.
Oberg
"confirmed our interpretation about developments in the Chinese Foreign
Ministry, i.e., that a group of radical Red Guards, who know
little about international affairs and diplomacy, but who are letter-perfect in
the thoughts of Mao Tse-tung, have taken over the Ministry. He said that foreign diplomats found it quite
disconcerting when they make a call on the Chinese Foreign Minister to read a
banner which is posted outside the Foreign Ministry stating that Foreign
Minister Chen Yi should be beheaded. Oberg said Red Guards are present whenever
a foreign ambassador calls on Chen Yi, and in fact when the British Ambassador
called with a protest note concerning Hong Kong, the Red Guard in attendance
called him a facist. He said foreign
diplomats, including the Swedes, had relatively little contact with the Foreign
Ministry now except when they had a specific problem. In fact, foreign diplomats are pretty much
isolated from the rest of the Chinese society and, therefore, their reporting
is not as accurate as it could be.
"In discussing the power struggle within
China today, Oberg remarked that Ambassador Petri, who is in Sweden on home
leave, refused to make any long-term prediction because the situation is so
unstable. One indication of how
oppressive the atmosphere is in Peking right now is that Petri considers a trip
to Hanoi a pleasant relief, "almost like visiting a resort,' compared to
Peking. Lin Piao, while extremely
powerful at this time, is in such poor physical condition that he would not be
capable of running the country should Mao die. Chou En-lai has admitted to visitors
from Eastern Europe that while he opposes the cultural revolution personally, he
is careful about making public criticism in order to remain in the inner
circle, and thereby exercise some degree of moderation.
Oberg said they
felt that at the present time China was not about to engage itself in military
activities outside its borders. This, of
course, did not preclude assisting various warring factions in Burma or
increasing support for the insurgency in Thailand."
Alfred Jenkins
cc: Mr. Jorden
COPY IBJ IIBRARY
出处：美国DDRS-266954
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