1967年的武汉7.20事件（武汉军人违逆毛泽东支持造反派的旨意劫走中央派来解决武斗问题的王力，此举被视作叛乱遭到清算）后，外界关于中国大陆会否重回1920年代军阀割据状态的猜测大大增加。1967年8月24日，美国国家安全委员会的工作人员William J. Jorden向总统提交了一份备忘录，简单概括了时任美国驻香港总领事Ed Rice昨日就此问题发来的电报。Rice认为共军现在还没有乱到分裂和军阀割据的地步，理由有二：1.各军区司令员一般不是本地人，而仍对军队作为国家机器的统一性有高度认同；2.现代化的共军依赖于一个全国性的工业体系才能有效运作，而物资流通交换会使得各军区司令员认识到各地区的互相依赖性。
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MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINTON
SECRET Thursday. August 24, 1967, 6:30 P.M.
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
SUBJECT: Will China Go Back to
Warlordism?
There has been much speculation that the current chaos in China will result
in the collapse of central authority and the rebirth of regional warlords.
Attached is a cable from Ed Rice, our Consul General in
Hong Kong, on this possibility.
Briefly, Rice believes that the current disorders have already put
regional military commanders under pressure to behave in a more autonomous
way. However, he
does not expect the relapse of the country into the warlord system of the
1920's because:
--The regional
military commanders are not, generally
speaking, local
figures, but men with a strong sense of
the army as a
national institution.
--China's modern
military is dependent for its existence on
the national
industrial sector, and the continued flow of
material requires
each regional commander to recognize
interdependence
with other regions.
In short, the regional army commanders are not potential warlords, and
warlordism is not likely unless the army dissolves into the general chaos.
William J. Jorden
Att.
Hong Kong 1126,
dtd 8/23/67
出处：美国DDRS-255607
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