1978.4.11 沈大伟就中共购买美国粮食向国安会提交备忘录

1978年春中共国向美国购买价格约八千万美金的12亿斤小麦（即60万吨），在国家安全委员会任职分析员的沈大伟（David Shambaugh）为此事给负责东亚/中国事务的奥克森伯格（Michel Oksenberg）写备忘录，指出无需夸大该交易的意义，美国仍然只是中共购买外国粮食的备选项而非主要提供商，这也未必是改善中美外交关系的信号。

有意思的是美国情报部门并不确知中共国是通过哪一家公司购买粮食的，因为负责审核粮食出口证的美国农业部拒绝提供名单。

中共此次向美国购粮是因为：1.中国的春粮还未收割，粮食储备处于年度最低水平；2.向中共出口粮食最多的加拿大已经比原计划迟交货了，新订单要到秋天才能满足；3.另外两个卖给中共粮食最多的国家阿根廷和澳大利亚（都是南半球国家，与中国季度相反）要到12月才能收割并提供新粮。

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MEMORANDUM    

NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

Confidential-CDS                                 April 11, 1978

MEMORANDUM TO: MICHEL OKSENBERG

FROM:             DAVID SHAMBAUGH

SUBJECT:          CHINESE WHEAT PURCHASE FROM THE UNITED STATES

Having concurred with State (PRCM & INR), CIA (OER), and indirectly DOA we have a reasonably clear picture of the nature and motivation of the Chinese grain purchase. The political consequences are less clear.

KNOWN FACTS

The Chinese have purchased 600,000 tons of wheat (worth approximately $80 million at current market prices) from an overseas branch of an undetermined company— most likely Cook, Dreyfus, or Continental. Delivery is scheduled for the June 1-September 1 period. An application for a grain export license has been filed by the same company with DOA. Agriculture refuses to tell who filed it.

I

MOTIVATION

The Chinese turned to the US because their other primary suppliers-- Argentina and Australia-- are sold out until their new crops are harvested in December. Canada, their #1 supplier, is already behind on delivery schedule and wouldn't be able to meet a new order until autumn. Since the spring crop has not yet been harvested in China, now is the annual low point in PRC grain reserves. Hence, in order to maintain continuity in deliveries and avoid a shortage China turned to the US.

CONSEQUENCES

Make no mistake. The US is still a residual supplier. The Chinese bought from us because they needed the grain, not necessarily to send a diplomatic signal. Although taken together with other recent indic­ations of amity-- broadened contacts with USLO officers, US MILATTs around the world, the new USLO compound, expanded exchanges, etc.--we must not overlook the political implications of the purchase. The

domestic political implications are also positive. Grain prices will rise as an effect of this and future sales, which will please farmers.

FYI

Rumors persist that another million tons may be included in the deal. The total package could go as high as two million tons.

The timing of this and future sales are critical factors in determining the importance the Chinese attach to the US as a grain supplier. Until now, and including this sale, we must be considered residual suppliers. However, should the Chinese opt to purchase additional US grain during the remainder of the 1978-79 cycle* (particularly in September) we become competitive suppliers with Australia, Canada, and Argentina. With Argentinian and Australian crops not due until December at the earliest, our prospects are good.

出处： DDRS-301663-i1-1