录入者按：红色标记系录入者所加。
1971年，9.13事件之后中国大陆全境禁空三天，此事让各国驻华外交官们注意到中国发生异常事件，但真正引发媒体和外界普遍注意是到9月22日中共正式对外宣布取消本年度的例行式国庆游行，这一爆炸性新闻立刻引发外界种种猜测，也让外交官们更加确信几天前有不同寻常的重大事件发生。
下面就是路透社在9月22日分别发自北京和香港的报道，值得注意的是驻北京记者James Pringle发出的新闻料很少，只提到主要接待外国人的北京新侨饭店前不久挪走一尊毛泽东像而已；相反在香港的记者Roland Dallas采访在香港的观察家和外交官并汇编了其他媒体的报道，反而提供了很多信息。
发自香港的报道提到：
1.在香港的共产党人说不了解北京取消国庆游行的原因，但仍然会去北京参加国庆典礼。
2.法国电台猜测毛泽东已死或重病。
3.在巴黎出版的《国际先驱论坛报》发表多伦多《环球邮报》驻北京记者John Burns的报道，称北京取消国庆游行事发突然，因为就在上周中（按：经查为9月15日）北京仍然在排练国庆游行。
4.外界普遍猜测9月12日到16日之间，中国发生了重大事变，此间中共政治局所有成员均未公开露面，除了年迈的代国家主席董必武（按：经查，9月14日董必武以国家副主席身份接受埃塞俄比亚首任驻华大使递交国书，外交部代部长姬鹏飞出席仪式）。
5.外交界说在9月13日到15日中国全境禁空，此事极为罕见，在以前有重大事变时才发生过。
6.在9月10日至20日，官媒没有报道解放军主要领导的消息，分析家说空军司令吴法宪自9月7号就没再露面。
7.从今年5.1庆典实况的纪录片上可以看到，毛泽东很衰弱，步伐缓慢，走几步就要护士扶持。
8.西方外交官普遍猜测中国领导层发生变动，而且没有中苏边境局势紧张的迹象。
CHINA PARADE
BY JAMES PRINGLE
PEKING, SEPT 22 REUTER — CHINA'S NATIONAL DAY
PARADE WHICH ANNUALLY MARKS CHAIRMAN RAO TSE-TUNG's FOUNDING OF THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC
ON OCTOBER 1,1949, WILL NOT TAKE PLACE THIS YEAR, A GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN SAID HERE
TODAY.
THE DISCLOSURE THAT THERE WOULD BE NO OCTOBER
1 PARADE -TRADITIONALLY A MASSIVE AND COLOURFUL SPECTACLE IN THE CHINA CAPITAL-WAS MADE BY A SPOKESMAN AT
THE FOREIGN MINISTRY INFORMATION DEPARTMENT.
HE SAID THE LACK OF CEREMONIAL ACTIVITIES, WHICH ALSO MEANT THERE WOULD BE NO
FIREWORKS DISPLAY THAT NIGHT, WAS A REFORM WHICH WAS BEING MADE THIS YEAR.
INSTEAD THERE WOULD BE CELEBRATIONS IN
PEKING'S MANY BEAUTIFUL PARKS, THE SPOKESMAN SAID.
IT IS UNDERSTOOD THAT THE FORTHCOMING
NATIONAL DAY CELEBRATIONS WILL CONCENTRATE MORE ON "CONCRETE DEEDS."
LAST YEAR'S CELEBRATIONS INCLUDED A MAMMOTH
PARADE IN PEKING AND A SPECTACULAR FIREWORKS DISPLAY, BOTH WATCHED BY CHAIRMAN
MAO TSETUNG.
TRADITIONALLY THE BIG PARADE IN THE FLAG
BEDECKED TIEN AN MEN SQUARE IN PEKING IS A CENTRAL FEATURE OF PUBLIC
CELEBRATIONS ON THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC.
RADIO PEKING LAST YEAR SAID HUNDREDS OF
MILLIONS OF CHINESE SOLDIERS AND CIVILIANS TOOK PART IN NATIONWIDE OCTOBER 1
CELEBRATIONS HOLDING MASS RALLIES AND PARADES THROUGHOUT CHINA TO HAIL THE COUNTRY'S
GREAT ACHIEVEMENTS IN SOCIALIST CONSTRUCTION AND REVOLUTION.
IT WAS UNDERSTOOD THAT THIS YEAR THE EMPHASIS
WOULD BE ON WORKING TO DEVELOP THE COUNTRY AMD ON THE STUDY OF CHAIRMAN MAO'S WORKS.
IN FORMER YEARS THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE HAVE
TAKEN PART IN THE PARADES ACROSS TIEN AN MEN SQUARE OF THE GATE OF HEAVENLY
PEACE WHICH FRONTS THE GOLDEN ROOFS OF THE CHINESE CAPITAL'S LOVELY FORBIDDEN
CITY.
THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP, INCLUDING CHAIRMAN
MAO, HAVE ON PREVIOUS NATIONAL
DAYS REVIEWED CHINESE WORKERS, RED GUARDS, SCHOOLCHILDREN AND FORCES OF THE
PEOPLE'S LIBERATION ARMY AS THEY MARCHED IN COLUMN ABREAST ACROSS THE SQUARE. USUALLY
ITEMS OF CHINA'S MILITARY HARDWARE ARE ON DISPLAY DURING THE PARADE WHICH MARKS
THE CHINESE COMMUNISTS' TRIUMPH IN GAINING CONTROL OF THE MAINLAND AT END OF
CIVIL WAR.
SOME DIPLOMATS HERE SEE THE CANCELLATION OF
THE PARADE AS MANIFESTING A NEW DIRECTION OF THE CHINESE REVOLUTION.
CHAIRMAN MAO, IN AN INTERVIEW WITH AMERICAN
JOURNALIST EDGAR SNOW EARLIER
THIS YEAR, HINTED THAT A PERSONALITY CULT WOULD DIMINISH IN THE CHANGED
CIRCUMSTANCES FOLLOWING THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION BETWEEN 1966 AND 1969.
ACCORDING TO SNOW, WHO CHRONICLED THE EARLY
DAYS OF THE CHINESE COMMUNISTS IN HIS BOOK "RED STAR OVER CHINA,"
CHAIRMAN MAO WOULD DROP HIS TITLES OF "GREAT MASTER, GREAT LEADER. GREAT
SUPREME COMMANDER, GREAT HELSMAN, " AND BE KNOWN ONLY AS “GREAT TEACHER”.
OBSERVERS HAVE NOTED MANIFESTATIONS OF
CHANGES IN RECENT MONTHS—THERE ARE FEWER BADGES BEARING THE CHAIRMAN'S PORTRAIT
WORN BY ORDINARY CHINESE AND A STATUE
OF CHAIRMAN MAO HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM PEKING'S HSIN CHIAO HOTEL, A RESIDENCE
MAINLY FOR FOREIGN VISITORS, THOUGH A LARGE BUST OF HIM REMAINS THERE.
CHINA
HONGKONG
HONG KONG, SEPT 22 REUTER-- WESTERN DIPLOMATIC
OBSERVERS SPECULATED TODAY THAT EVENTS
IN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS POINTS TO POSSIBLE POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA.
THESE OBSERVERS SPECIALISING IN STUDY OF
CHINESE AFFAIRS, CITED A NUMBER OF
FACTORS NOTICED EARLIER THIS MONTH WHICH COULD INDICATE AN UNSPECIFIED
POLITICAL CHANGE IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC.
PEKING RADIO BROADCAST NORMAL PROGRAMMES THIS
MORNING AND GAVE NO INDICATION OF ANY CHANGE IN THE SITUATION IN CHINA.
UNCONFIRMED REPORTS IN A NUMBER OF WORLD CENTRES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS SAID THE OCTOBER 1
PARADE IN PEKING HAD BEEN CANCELLED, LEADING TO SPECULATION CENTERING ON THE
POSSIBLE ILLNESS OR DEATH OF CHAIRMAN MAO TSE-TUNG, 77.
MORNING NEWS BULLETIN FROM PEKING MADE NO
MENTION OF THE HUGE, TRADITIONAL PARADE AND THE ONLY REFERENCE TO THE DAY WAS A
REPEAT OF AN ITEM QUOTING A SPECIAL COLUMN IN THE PEKING PEOPLE'S DAILY. THE
COLUMN, DEVOTED TO ARTICLES ABOUT THE NATIONAL DAY, REPORTED ON INVESTIGATION AND
RESEARCH IN YUNNAN PROVINCE.
CHINESE COMMUNISTS IN HONG KONG SAID THEY HAD
NO INFORMATION ABOUT ANY CANCELLATION OF THE PARADE AND ADDED THAT THEY WERE
GOING AHEAD WITH PREPARATIONS FOR THEIR CELEBRATIONS.
HONG KONG'S TABLOID AFTERNOON NEWSPAPERS SPLASHED
SPECULATIVE BANNER HEADLINES TODAY. "IS MAO DEAD OR DYING?" THE STAR ASKED. THE
CHINA MAIL'S HEADLINE WAS :"NAO DEAD FEAR."
THE COMMUNIST PARTY CHAIRMAN HAS BEEN IN POOR HEALTH FOR SOME TIME.
HIS HEIR DESIGNATE, VICE-CHAIRMAN AND DEFENCE MINISTER LIN PIAO IS ALSO WIDELY
BELIEVED TO BE IN POOR HEALTH.
YESTERDAY FRENCH RADIO REPORTS SPECULATED THAT
CHAIRMAN MAO MAY HAVE DIED OR BECOME GRAVELY ILL FOLLOWING A HEART ATTACK.
THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE, PUBLISHED
IN PARIS, SPLASHED A REPORT TODAY THAT THE TRADITIONAL OCTOBER PARADE HAD BEEN
CANCELLED. THE DISPATCH, BY JOHN
BURNS, THE PEKING CORRESPONDENT OF THE TORONTO GLOBE AND MAIL, DESCRIBED THE CANCELLATION AS ONE OF THE MOST
STARTLING DEVELOPMENTS IN YEARS AND SAID THAT CHINESE OFFICIALS MAD GIVEN NO
EXPLANATION. PREPARATIONS FOR THE PARADE HAD GONE AHEAD UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK, WHEN THEY SUDDENLY STOPPED, THE REPORT SAID.
MOST OF THE SPECULATION IN HONG KONG
CONCENTRATED ON THE PERIOD BETWEEN
SEPTEMBER 12 AND 16 AS POSSIBLY DECISIVE IN THE EVENT OF ANY DEVELOPMENTS IN
CHINA.
DURING THIS TIME, ALL MEMBERS OF THE CHINESE
POLITBURO WERE OUT OF SIGHT,
EXCEPT THE AGED ACTING PRESIDENT TUNG PI-WU.
FROM SEPTEMBER 13 TO 15, DIPLOMATIC SOURCES
HERE REPORTED A HOLD-DOWN ON ALL FLIGHTS ACROSS CHINA, A RARE EVENT WHICH HAS PREVIOUSLY
OCCURRED AT TIMES OF POLITICAL CHANGE.
NO CHIEF OF THE PEOPLE'S LIBERATION ARMY
APPEARED IN PUBLIC, AS REPORTED BY THE OFFICIAL NEWS MEDIA, FROM SEPTEMBER 10
TO 20. ANALYSTS HERE SAID AIR FORCE COMMANDER WU FA-HSIEN HAS BEEN OUT OF SIGHT
SINCE SEPTEMBER 7.
DIPLOMATIC OBSERVERS SAID THESE FACTORS COULD ALL
SIGNIFY POLITICAL CHANGE. THEY SAID THAT IF THE REPORTS OF THE CANCELLATION OF THE NATIONAL DAY PARADE WAS
CONFIRMED, THIS COULD ONLY HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY AN EVENT OF MAJOR IMPORTANCE.
A DOCUMENTARY FILM OF THE MAY DAY
CELEBRATIONS IN PEKING SHOWED CHAIRMAN MAO WALKING, SLOWLY AND LOOKING VERY
FRAIL. A NURSE TOOK HIS ARM EVERY FEW STEPS. CHAIRMAN MAO ALSO USUALLY REVIEWS
THE OCTOBER 1 PARADE.
LIN PIAO, HIS POLITICAL HEIR, IS A SHADOWY
FIGURE WHO RARELY MAKES PUBLIC APPEARANCE AND LITTLE IS KNOWN OF HIS PHYSICAL CONDITION
THESE DAYS.
PREMIER CHOU EN-LAI, THE MOST ACTIVE PUBLIC
FIGURE IN PEKING, APPEARED MOST RECENTLY ON MONDAY WHEN HE HELD TALKS WITH JAPANESE
LEFTIST POLITICIANS. CHAIRMAN HAO'S WIFE, CHIANG CHINQ, ALSO ATTENDED THIS
MEETING, THE NEW CHINA NEWS AGENCY REPORTED.
WESTERN DIPLOMATIC SOURCES HERE SPECULATED
THI IF THE NATIONALDAY PARADE HAS BEEN CANCELLED, A POSSIBLE REASON WOULD BE CHANGE
IN THE LEADERSHIP.
ONE OTHER POSSIBILITY WAS AN ERUPTION OF BORDER
TROUBLES WITH THE SOVIET UNION, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN NO INDICATIONS OF THIS HERE
OR IN MOSCOW, THE SOURCES SAID.
ANOTHER REASON PUT FORWARD FOR THE REPORTED CANCELLATION
WAS A POSSIBLE DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE COMMUNIST HIERARCHY BETWEEN THE DOMINANT
FIGURES, SAID TO BE CHOU EN-LAI AND ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF HUANG YUNG-SHENG, AND
EXTREME LEFT-WING COMMUNIST.
A CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN UNDER WAY AGAINST EXTREME
LEFTISTS
WHO HAVE BEEN
BLAMED FOR THE DISORDERS OF THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION AND POLITBURO MEMBER CHEN
PO-TA'S PHOTOGRAPH HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM PHOTOGRAPHIC PRESENTATIONS OF POLITBURO
MEMBERS IN OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS.
CHEN PO-TA HAS A REPUTATION HERE AS A
LEFT-WINGER INSIDE THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY.
BUT THE SOURCES HERE DOUBTED THAT THE
LEFTISTS COULD MOUNT SO POWERFUL A CHALLENGE TO THE ADMINISTRATION THAT THE NATIONAL
DAY PARADE WOULD BE CANCELLED.
出处：英国外交部档案FCO_21_805
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